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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2020  |  Volume : 151  |  Issue : 6  |  Page : 562-570

Findings from the 2017 HIV estimation round & trend analysis of key indicators 2010-2017: Evidence for prioritising HIV/AIDS programme in India


1 ICMR-National Institute of Medical Statistics, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
2 Division of Strategic lnformation - Surveillance and Epidemiology, National AIDS Control Organisation, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
3 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, New Delhi, India
4 Principal Advisor to Board of Governors, Medical Council of India, New Delhi, India
5 ICMR-National AIDS Research Institute, Pune, Maharashtra, India
6 Computing and Information Sciences, ICMR-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
7 Department of Virology, ICMR-National Institute of Cholera & Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
8 Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
9 Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education & Research, Chandigarh, India
10 Department of Community Medicine, Regional Institute of Medical Sciences, Imphal, Manipur, India
11 Centre for Disease Control, New Delhi, India
12 Odisha State AIDS Control Society, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
13 Chandigarh State AIDS Control Society, Chandigarh, India
14 Delhi State AIDS Control Society, Delhi, India
15 Mumbai District AIDS Control Society, Maharashtra, India
16 Department of Mathematical Demography and Statistics, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
17 Department of Community Medicine, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India

Correspondence Address:
Dr M Vishnu Vardhana Rao
Director, ICMR-National Institute of Medical Statistics, Ansari Nagar, New Delhi 110 029, India
India
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/ijmr.IJMR_1619_19

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Background & objectives: The National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) and the ICMR-National Institute of Medical Statistics, the nodal agency for conducting HIV estimations in India, have been generating HIV estimates regularly since 2003. The objective of this study was to describe India's biennial HIV estimation 2017 process, data inputs, tool, methodology and epidemiological assumptions used to generate the HIV estimates and trends of key indicators for 2010-2017 at national and State/Union Territory levels. Methods: Demographic Projection (DemProj) and AIDS Impact Modules (AIM) of Spectrum 5.63 software recommended by the United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS Global Reference Group on HIV Estimates, Modelling and Projections, were used for generating HIV estimations on key indicators. HIV sentinel surveillance, epidemiological and programme data were entered into Estimation Projection Package (EPP), and curve fitting was done using EPP classic model. Finally, calibration was done using the State HIV prevalence of two rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) -3 and -4 and Integrated Biological and Behavioural Surveillance (IBBS), 2014-2015. Results: The national adult prevalence of HIV was estimated to be 0.22 per cent in 2017. Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland had the highest prevalence over one per cent. An estimated 2.1 million people were living with HIV in 2017, with Maharashtra estimated to have the highest number. Of the 88 thousand annual new HIV infections estimated nationally in 2017, Telangana accounted for the largest share. HIV incidence was found to be higher among key population groups, especially people who inject drugs. The annual AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 69 thousand nationally. For all indicators, geographic variation in levels and trends between States existed. Interpretation & conclusions: With a slow decline in annual new HIV infections by only 27 per cent from 2010 to 2017 against the national target of 75 per cent by 2020, the national target to end AIDS by 2030 may be missed; although at the sub-national level some States have made better progress to reduce new HIV infection. It calls for reinforcement of HIV prevention, diagnosis and treatment efforts by geographical regions and population groups.


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